It would more likely be a gradual phasing out of old programs and a build-up of basic income as money is moved toward that program
Yes, this has been my conclusion.
I don't think a BI will ever happen. But I suspect/hope that in maybe a couple hundred years, we'll have something very similar to it under a different name ... probably still with some level of admin overhead to deal with the "poor people make bad decisions" issue that has been raised.
The welfare state has expanded massively over time just due to the increase in life expectancy and health care cost inflation. But if we assume that these things reach some sort of natural peak, then eventually as GDP grows and more taxes become available, a progressively more generous welfare state should be the natural outcome ... at least for governments that have got their debt levels under control.
Unfortunately the looming pension deficits mean it'll probably be a long time before we reach such a happy state. Our society is very obviously not rich enough to handle even the current levels of welfare (or put another way, our society misallocates resources). There is no realistic chance of a BI any time soon.
Yes, this has been my conclusion.
I don't think a BI will ever happen. But I suspect/hope that in maybe a couple hundred years, we'll have something very similar to it under a different name ... probably still with some level of admin overhead to deal with the "poor people make bad decisions" issue that has been raised.
The welfare state has expanded massively over time just due to the increase in life expectancy and health care cost inflation. But if we assume that these things reach some sort of natural peak, then eventually as GDP grows and more taxes become available, a progressively more generous welfare state should be the natural outcome ... at least for governments that have got their debt levels under control.
Unfortunately the looming pension deficits mean it'll probably be a long time before we reach such a happy state. Our society is very obviously not rich enough to handle even the current levels of welfare (or put another way, our society misallocates resources). There is no realistic chance of a BI any time soon.